Honorary Research Fellow
Professor Nick Golding is an infectious disease modeller with a focus on globally-important pathogens. His work combines mathematical and statistical modelling, ecology, and public health. Since completing a PhD on modelling mosquito-borne diseases at the University of Oxford, he has collaborated with epidemiologists from around the world developing models and maps of the risk posed by some of the world’s most important and neglected diseases – including malaria, Dengue fever, Chikungunya, and Ebola.
After moving to the University of Melbourne in 2016, Professor Golding has worked closely with ecologists both on modelling methods and on urgent health issues like Melbourne’s Buruli ulcer outbreak – where risk to humans depends on the ecology of mosquitos and possums. In 2020 Professor Golding joined the Malaria Atlas Project at Telethon Kids Institute as Director of Malaria Ecology. He is a member of the Australian national modelling team, advising national and state governments on their response to COVID-19 throughout the pandemic.
A modelling approach to estimate the transmissibility of SARS-CoV 2 during periods of high, low, and zero case incidence
Against a backdrop ofwidespread global transmission, a number of countries have successfully brought large outbreaks of COVID-19 under control and maintained near-elimination status. A key element of epidemic response is the tracking of disease transmissibility in near real-time. During major out-breaks, the effective reproduction number can be estimated froma time-series of case, hospitalisation or death counts. In low or zero incidence settings, knowing the potential for the virus to spread is a response priority.Published research Infectious Diseases Geospatial Health and Development COVID-19January 2022
Modelling temperature-driven changes in species associations across freshwater communities
Due to global climate change–induced shifts in species distributions, estimating changes in community composition through the use of Species Distribution Models has become a key management tool. Being able to determine how species associations change along environmental gradients is likely to be pivotal in exploring the magnitude of future changes in species’ distributions.Published research Geospatial Health and DevelopmentJanuary 2022
A fractional land use change model for ecological applications
By mapping land use under projections of socio-economic change, ecological changes can be predicted to inform conservation decision-making. We present a land use model that enables the fine-scale mapping of land use change under future scenarios. Its predictions can be used as input to virtually all existing spatially-explicit ecological models.Published research Geospatial Health and Development
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